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2018年9月(yue)(yue)，中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業月(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為39.6，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升0.5個(ge)(ge)點(dian)；先行合成指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為65.3，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升1.6個(ge)(ge)點(dian)；一(yi)致合成指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)為69.0，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升1.3個(ge)(ge)點(dian)（近13個(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業月(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)如表1所示(shi)）。中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業月(yue)(yue)度(du)景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)監測結果顯示(shi)，鉛(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產業景氣(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)持續位于“正常”區間運行。

表(biao)1  2017年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)至(zhi)2018年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)中色鉛鋅(xin)產(chan)業月(yue)(yue)度景氣指數

1、景氣指數位于“正常”區間并有所回升

中(zhong)(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業月(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)指(zhi)數顯(xian)示，2018年9月(yue)景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)指(zhi)數為39.6，較上月(yue)上升(sheng)0.5個點，目前(qian)景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)指(zhi)數持續位于“正(zheng)常”區(qu)間(jian)運行。中(zhong)(zhong)色鉛鋅產(chan)業月(yue)度景(jing)(jing)氣(qi)指(zhi)數趨勢如圖1所(suo)示。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷(leng)>

圖(tu)1  中色鉛鋅(xin)產業景(jing)氣(qi)指數趨勢圖(tu)

從中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度景氣信號(hao)燈可(ke)見（見圖2），2018年9月(yue)，在構成中色鉛(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)業(ye)月(yue)度景氣指(zhi)(zhi)數的9個指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中:鉛(qian)鋅(xin)價格指(zhi)(zhi)數、M2、鉛(qian)鋅(xin)礦進口量、固定資(zi)產(chan)投資(zi)、生產(chan)指(zhi)(zhi)數、主(zhu)營業(ye)務收入、利潤總額位于(yu)“正常”區(qu)間(jian)；鉛(qian)酸蓄電池、鍍鋅(xin)板位于(yu)“偏冷(leng)”區(qu)間(jian)。

注：<過熱><偏熱><正常><偏冷><過冷>

圖(tu)2  中色鉛鋅產業景(jing)氣(qi)信號燈圖(tu)

2、先行合成指有所回升

2018年9月(yue)，中色鉛鋅產業先行(xing)合成指數為65.3，較上(shang)月(yue)上(shang)升1.6個點(dian)（見圖3）。

在構成(cheng)中色(se)鉛鋅(xin)(xin)產業先行合成(cheng)指數的(de)6個指標(biao)中4漲2降。其中同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)4個指標(biao)中，LME鉛鋅(xin)(xin)價格指數同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)1.0%、M2同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.6%、鉛鋅(xin)(xin)礦進口量指數同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)59.1%、固定資產投資同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)16.5%。同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降的(de)2個指標(biao)中，鉛酸(suan)蓄電池（千伏(fu)安時）同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降21.8%、鍍鋅(xin)(xin)板同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降11.5%。

圖(tu)3  中色(se)鉛鋅產(chan)業(ye)合成指數曲線圖(tu)

3、產業運行特點

2018年前三(san)季度，鉛鋅產業(ye)除(chu)冶(ye)煉環節生(sheng)產經營壓力(li)偏(pian)大(da)外(wai)，整體能夠保持(chi)平穩運行(xing)。產業(ye)運行(xing)狀況呈現如(ru)下四方面特點：

一是環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)壓力(li)持續增大，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)成本(ben)剛性上漲。2018年藍天保(bao)衛(wei)戰重(zhong)點(dian)區域(yu)在(zai)(zai)原有(you)2+26城(cheng)市基礎上，新增汾渭平(ping)原11城(cheng)市。清廢行(xing)(xing)動2018，涉及(ji)長江(jiang)經濟(ji)帶11省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)市。在(zai)(zai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)標準、執法力(li)度不斷(duan)(duan)增強的大背景下，環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)重(zhong)點(dian)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)市不斷(duan)(duan)增多，涉及(ji)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)不斷(duan)(duan)擴大。從長江(jiang)經濟(ji)帶內鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)看(kan)，該(gai)流(liu)域(yu)涉及(ji)鉛(qian)(qian)冶煉產(chan)(chan)能(neng)占全國總產(chan)(chan)能(neng)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例60%，再生鉛(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)80%，鋅(xin)(xin)冶煉產(chan)(chan)能(neng)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)50%。大氣污染(ran)重(zhong)點(dian)區域(yu)內，河(he)南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)為鉛(qian)(qian)冶煉生產(chan)(chan)大省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，河(he)北省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)為鍍鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)大省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。因而上述區域(yu)內鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)生產(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)否達標穩定運(yun)行(xing)(xing)，將直接影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)平(ping)穩健康發(fa)展。從環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)政策影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)上看(kan)，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)紛紛加(jia)大環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)投資，加(jia)強環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)設(she)施建設(she)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)環(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)成本(ben)剛性上漲。

二是鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設有(you)(you)(you)所(suo)分化，鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)率(lv)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較高。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)原(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)率(lv)普遍(bian)高于(yu)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。但受(shou)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)盈利能(neng)(neng)(neng)力增強(qiang)及(ji)未來再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)量占比將不斷增大影(ying)響(xiang)，原(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)冶(ye)煉企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)紛(fen)(fen)紛(fen)(fen)擴大原(yuan)有(you)(you)(you)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)池生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)受(shou)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)者責任延伸(shen)制度影(ying)響(xiang)，紛(fen)(fen)紛(fen)(fen)通(tong)過并購再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、新(xin)建(jian)(jian)再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的方式延伸(shen)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)布(bu)局，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設投(tou)資偏熱。從初步統(tong)計數(shu)據(ju)看，中國(guo)年產(chan)(chan)廢舊鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)池500萬(wan)噸，現有(you)(you)(you)廢舊鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)酸蓄(xu)電(dian)池拆(chai)解能(neng)(neng)(neng)力700萬(wan)噸，未來仍(reng)有(you)(you)(you)200-300萬(wan)噸產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在建(jian)(jian)，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)面臨產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)過剩風險(xian)。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)建(jian)(jian)設方面，再(zai)(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)占比相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較低(di)，原(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鋅(xin)冶(ye)煉新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)以原(yuan)有(you)(you)(you)冶(ye)煉企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)擴建(jian)(jian)及(ji)礦(kuang)山配套冶(ye)煉項目為(wei)主，總體新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)(you)(you)限，實際投(tou)產(chan)(chan)規模受(shou)環(huan)保(bao)政策影(ying)響(xiang)有(you)(you)(you)待觀察(cha)。鋅(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)率(lv)位于(yu)合理(li)區間(jian)。

三是精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)供(gong)應依然(ran)偏(pian)緊，冶(ye)煉經營壓力(li)偏(pian)大。受(shou)環保(bao)行(xing)動導致不(bu)合(he)規小型礦(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)關停及新投產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)礦(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能有(you)限影(ying)響(xiang)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)10.0萬噸(dun)(dun)；1-8月份(fen)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)累計(ji)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)79.1萬噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)9.6%；2018年(nian)(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)23.5萬噸(dun)(dun)；1-8月鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)178.0萬噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)8.1%，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)供(gong)應依然(ran)偏(pian)緊。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金屬產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，精(jing)(jing)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)有(you)所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，其中(zhong)(zhong)再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長10.6%，高(gao)于(yu)原生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長7.2個百(bai)分點，再生(sheng)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)對精(jing)(jing)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長貢獻較大。精(jing)(jing)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)方(fang)面，2018年(nian)(nian)8月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)精(jing)(jing)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)43.1萬噸(dun)(dun)；1-8月份(fen)精(jing)(jing)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)369.5萬噸(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)1.4%。精(jing)(jing)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)除受(shou)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)(kuang)供(gong)應緊張影(ying)響(xiang)外，也受(shou)到冶(ye)煉加工費位于(yu)歷史低位，冶(ye)煉企(qi)業盈利(li)(li)能力(li)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，企(qi)業生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)積極性不(bu)高(gao)影(ying)響(xiang)。從產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業實(shi)現(xian)(xian)利(li)(li)潤(run)數據上看，2018年(nian)(nian)1-8月中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)冶(ye)煉企(qi)業實(shi)現(xian)(xian)利(li)(li)潤(run)16.6億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)62%。鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)采選實(shi)現(xian)(xian)利(li)(li)潤(run)受(shou)價格仍(reng)位于(yu)相(xiang)對高(gao)位運行(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)利(li)(li)潤(run)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)仍(reng)有(you)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，但增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅有(you)所下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)1-8月實(shi)現(xian)(xian)利(li)(li)潤(run)122.0億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長11.5%。價格方(fang)面，2018年(nian)(nian)鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)金屬價格重(zhong)心有(you)所下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)移，但仍(reng)位于(yu)相(xiang)對高(gao)位運行(xing)。9月鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)國(guo)內(nei)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)均(jun)價18966元/噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上漲4.2%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)跌6.8%。滬鋅(xin)(xin)(xin)主力(li)合(he)約月均(jun)價21090元/噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上漲0.4%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)15.8%。

四是產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)整體動(dong)力不足。中國(guo)(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)受鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)影(ying)響(xiang)。2018年(nian)(nian)8月，中國(guo)(guo)鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)1330千伏(fu)安時；1-8月中國(guo)(guo)累(lei)計(ji)鉛(qian)(qian)酸蓄電(dian)池產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)14630.8千伏(fu)安時，同比下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)27.2%。鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)受鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)發展(zhan)影(ying)響(xiang)，2018年(nian)(nian)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)受鋼鐵去產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能行動(dong)影(ying)響(xiang)，同比有所(suo)(suo)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，2018年(nian)(nian)8月，中國(guo)(guo)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)460萬噸；1-8月中國(guo)(guo)鍍(du)鋅(xin)(xin)板累(lei)計(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)3298.7萬噸，同比下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)26.2%。終端消(xiao)費(fei)領(ling)域，汽車、冰箱、洗衣機等(deng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)雖然(ran)同比仍有增長，但增速(su)有所(suo)(suo)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。鉛(qian)(qian)鋅(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)消(xiao)費(fei)動(dong)力整體不足。

從(cong)2018年四季度(du)鉛鋅(xin)產業(ye)發展(zhan)趨勢(shi)上(shang)看，鉛鋅(xin)精礦供應緊張局面難(nan)以發生(sheng)根本(ben)性好轉，再(zai)生(sheng)金屬產量依然(ran)能夠保持穩步(bu)增(zeng)長，終端消費(fei)進入傳統消費(fei)旺季或將有(you)所提振(zhen)，因而(er)初步(bu)預(yu)計未來(lai)鉛鋅(xin)產業(ye)景氣指數(shu)仍將位于(yu)“正常”區間運行。（馬駿 執筆）

附注：

1、鉛鋅產業景氣先行合成指數（簡稱：先行指數）用于判斷鉛鋅產業經濟運行的近期變化趨勢。該指數由以下6項指標構成：LME鉛鋅價格指數、M2、鉛酸蓄電池、鍍鋅板、鉛鋅礦進口量指數、固定資產投資指數。

2、鉛鋅產業一致合成指標（簡稱：一致指數）反映當前鉛鋅產業經濟的運行狀況。該指數由以下3項指標構成：生產指數、主營業務收入指數、利潤總額指數。

3、鉛鋅產業滯后合成指標（簡稱：滯后指數）與一致指數一起主要用來監測經濟變動的趨勢，起到事后驗證的作用。該指數由以下3項指標構成：流動資本余額、應收賬款總額、產成品余額。

4、綜合景氣指數反映當前鉛鋅產業發展景氣程度。景氣燈號圖把鉛鋅產業經濟運行狀態分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經濟過熱，“黃燈”表示經濟偏熱，“綠燈”表示經濟運行正常，“淺藍燈”表示經濟偏冷，“藍燈”表示經濟過冷。對單項指標燈號賦予不同的權重，將其匯總而成的綜合景氣指數也同樣由5個燈區顯示。

綜合景氣指數由9項指標構成，即先行指數和一致指數的構成指標。

5、編制指數所用各項指標均經過季節調整，已剔除季節因素。

6、每月都將對以前的月度景氣指數進行修訂。當時間序列加入最新的一個月的數據后，以往月度景氣指數會或多或少地發生變化，這是模型自動修正的結果。

7、生產指數，包括國內生產鉛、鋅精礦金屬含量、精煉鉛、鋅產量。進口量指數，包括進口鉛、鋅精礦含鉛、鋅量、進口精煉鉛、鋅金屬量。

【責任編輯：李瑛】