文章來源(yuan)：人民日報 發布時(shi)間：2021-08-11
國家能源局(ju)日前公(gong)布(bu)數(shu)據(ju)顯示，4月(yue)(yue)起(qi)，全社會用(yong)電量同比實現(xian)正增(zeng)(zeng)長，4月(yue)(yue)、5月(yue)(yue)、6月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速分別為0.7%、4.6%和6.1%，逐月(yue)(yue)回升。“用(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)速從(cong)一(yi)季度(du)的同比下降6.5%，上(shang)升至(zhi)二季度(du)同比增(zeng)(zeng)長3.9%，其(qi)中6月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速回升至(zhi)6.1%，其(qi)中有氣溫升高的因素，但(dan)經濟總體逐步復蘇、新(xin)動(dong)能保持強勁(jing)支撐是(shi)最主(zhu)要原因。”中國電力企業聯合會專職副理事長兼秘書長于崇(chong)德說。
用電(dian)量是經濟運(yun)行的晴雨表(biao)。
國家統(tong)計(ji)局數據顯示(shi)，二季(ji)度(du)高技術制造業(ye)(ye)增加值(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)增長9.8%，為增速(su)最(zui)高行業(ye)(ye)板(ban)塊；裝備制造業(ye)(ye)增加值(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)增長9.5%，為回升(sheng)幅度(du)最(zui)大行業(ye)(ye)板(ban)塊。
與之(zhi)相對應，高技(ji)術及裝備制造業的(de)用電增(zeng)(zeng)速回升也較為(wei)明(ming)顯。二季(ji)度(du)高技(ji)術及裝備制造業用電量同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.3%，比(bi)(bi)一季(ji)度(du)增(zeng)(zeng)速提高19.1個百分點，6月份增(zeng)(zeng)速進一步升至8.4%。
于崇德介紹(shao)，上(shang)半年，依托大數據(ju)、云(yun)計算、物聯網等(deng)新技術的網絡信息(xi)服務(wu)業(ye)用電量大幅上(shang)升，其(qi)中信息(xi)傳輸(shu)/軟件和信息(xi)技術服務(wu)業(ye)用電量同(tong)比增長27.7%。
“未來能源轉型發(fa)展(zhan)將呈現明顯(xian)的(de)電(dian)氣(qi)化趨勢，電(dian)能替(ti)代潛力巨大，我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)力需求還處在較長時間的(de)增長期。”中電(dian)聯行業發(fa)展(zhan)與環境資源部副主任張琳認為。
中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯報告(gao)顯(xian)示，上半年電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力投(tou)資(zi)(zi)快速(su)增(zeng)長，納入行業投(tou)資(zi)(zi)統(tong)計(ji)體系的(de)主要(yao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力企業合計(ji)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)3395億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長21.6%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)工程建設完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)1738億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長51.5%；電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網工程建設完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)1657億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長0.7%。水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等清(qing)潔能源(yuan)(yuan)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)92.5%，比(bi)(bi)上年同(tong)期提高(gao)10.4個百分點。
利用率方面，清潔能源消納持(chi)續好轉，上半年風(feng)電、光伏發電利用率分別達到(dao)96.1%、97.9%，同比上升0.8、0.3個百分點。
下半(ban)年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需形勢如(ru)何？中電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯報(bao)告認為，下半(ban)年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)費增速有望比上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)明(ming)顯回升(sheng)。值得(de)注意的是(shi)，后續(xu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)費增長仍然(ran)存在一(yi)定(ding)不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性。于崇(chong)德分(fen)析，從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)(ying)看(kan)，一(yi)是(shi)主要(yao)流域(yu)降水(shui)情(qing)況不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)，帶來(lai)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供應(ying)(ying)能力(li)(li)的不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)。二是(shi)當前部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤供應(ying)(ying)偏緊，如(ru)果下半(ban)年(nian)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)來(lai)水(shui)偏少，東(dong)北、西(xi)北、西(xi)南等(deng)地(di)區部(bu)分(fen)時段電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤很可(ke)(ke)能供不(bu)(bu)應(ying)(ying)求(qiu)。從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需求(qiu)看(kan)，境(jing)外疫情(qing)仍在蔓延、極端氣(qi)候變(bian)化等(deng)因素也可(ke)(ke)能給(gei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)費帶來(lai)不(bu)(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性。
于崇德(de)建(jian)議，密切跟(gen)蹤電力供需(xu)形勢(shi)變化(hua)，做好相關(guan)預案(an)；保障電煤穩(wen)定(ding)供應；提(ti)高系(xi)統調節能力，進一步提(ti)高靈活性調節電源以及儲能裝置建(jian)設的積(ji)極性。
【責(ze)任編輯(ji)：趙(zhao)藝涵】