文章來源:中國儲備(bei)棉管理總(zong)公司 發(fa)布時(shi)間:2012-03-28
近期(qi),棉(mian)(mian)(mian)紗銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)行(xing)情弱勢未改(gai),紡(fang)(fang)織企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)庫存壓力較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da),降價(jia)(jia)促銷(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)增多,棉(mian)(mian)(mian)紗價(jia)(jia)格跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)進一步擴大(da)(da);滌(di)(di)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)紗銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)不濟拖累滌(di)(di)短行(xing)情。紡(fang)(fang)織企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)皮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)采(cai)購(gou)(gou)積極性(xing)下降,棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)對后(hou)市的看法出現分歧,但主(zhu)流企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)存棉(mian)(mian)(mian)成本較(jiao)(jiao)高且看好后(hou)市,不愿大(da)(da)幅(fu)(fu)降價(jia)(jia)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou),市場陷(xian)入僵持,現貨(huo)價(jia)(jia)格穩中略跌(die)(die)(die)(die)。3月(yue)25日,32支純棉(mian)(mian)(mian)普梳紗報價(jia)(jia)37400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)1150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)3.0%;滌(di)(di)綸短纖報價(jia)(jia)14650元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)150元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)1.0%。內地(di)籽棉(mian)(mian)(mian)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)6.33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin)(折皮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)價(jia)(jia)28452元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)0.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤(jin),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.8%。代(dai)表內地(di)標準級(ji)皮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)的國家棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)價(jia)(jia)格B指數30643元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)38元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.1%;新疆標準級(ji)皮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)31062元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)29元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.1%。鄭州棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)期(qi)貨(huo)5月(yue)合約結算(suan)價(jia)(jia)30430元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)(die)145元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.5%;全國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)交易市場電(dian)子撮合交易5月(yue)合同均(jun)價(jia)(jia)30347元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)上漲33元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),漲幅(fu)(fu)0.1%。
國內棉(mian)價(jia)(jia)趨于平穩使棉(mian)花企業恐慌心(xin)態(tai)有所(suo)(suo)改觀,高等(deng)(deng)級(ji)棉(mian)價(jia)(jia)格在(zai)(zai)資(zi)源稀少(shao)的(de)支撐(cheng)下逐(zhu)漸企穩,但緊(jin)縮政策(ce)和(he)紡織運行(xing)(xing)疲弱(ruo)仍將(jiang)對(dui)近(jin)(jin)期棉(mian)價(jia)(jia)形(xing)成制約。主(zhu)要原(yuan)因:一(yi)是(shi)3月25日起人民幣存款準(zhun)備(bei)金率(lv)上(shang)調0.5個百分點,央(yang)行(xing)(xing)副行(xing)(xing)長(chang)、國家(jia)外管局(ju)局(ju)長(chang)易綱表示,央(yang)行(xing)(xing)今(jin)年(nian)最主(zhu)要的(de)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)就(jiu)是(shi)對(dui)抗(kang)通脹,維(wei)持(chi)物價(jia)(jia)穩定,所(suo)(suo)有可(ke)能的(de)政策(ce)工(gong)(gong)具,包括利率(lv)、匯率(lv)、存款準(zhun)備(bei)金率(lv)以及公開市(shi)場操作(zuo)等(deng)(deng)手段都在(zai)(zai)考慮(lv)之列。二(er)是(shi)目前(qian)紡織企業的(de)棉(mian)紗庫存壓(ya)力(li)較大,行(xing)(xing)情整體弱(ruo)勢未改,資(zi)金實力(li)相對(dui)較弱(ruo)的(de)中小型(xing)紡企降價(jia)(jia)促(cu)銷的(de)不在(zai)(zai)少(shao)數,短期皮棉(mian)需求(qiu)難以明顯釋放(fang),現貨市(shi)場或將(jiang)維(wei)持(chi)弱(ruo)勢僵持(chi)局(ju)面。綜上(shang),預(yu)計(ji)近(jin)(jin)期棉(mian)價(jia)(jia)橫向整理(li)的(de)可(ke)能性較大。
日本(ben)核泄露事件稍有緩和(he),但利比亞緊張局(ju)勢繼續升級,大宗商品市場(chang)波(bo)動較(jiao)大,紐約(yue)(yue)棉花(hua)期(qi)貨(huo)劇(ju)烈振蕩(dang),交易重心略(lve)有上(shang)(shang)移,國際(ji)現貨(huo)價(jia)格在美棉銷售(shou)好轉的助推(tui)下(xia)大幅(fu)(fu)上(shang)(shang)漲。3月25日,紐約(yue)(yue)棉花(hua)期(qi)貨(huo)5月合約(yue)(yue)結算(suan)價(jia)204.49美分(fen)/磅,較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲5.37美分(fen)/磅,漲幅(fu)(fu)2.7%。代表進(jin)口(kou)棉中(zhong)國主港到岸(an)均(jun)價(jia)的國際(ji)棉花(hua)指數(shu)(M)按(an)1%關稅(shui)計算(suan),折人民幣(bi)進(jin)口(kou)成(cheng)本(ben)39868元/噸(dun),較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲2435元/噸(dun),漲幅(fu)(fu)6.5%;按(an)滑準稅(shui)計算(suan),折人民幣(bi)進(jin)口(kou)成(cheng)本(ben)40047元/噸(dun),較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)漲2411元/噸(dun),漲幅(fu)(fu)6.4%。
從基本(ben)面和外圍環(huan)境(jing)分析,近期(qi)(qi)國際(ji)市場(chang)多空交織,行情難改振蕩走勢。基本(ben)面,據(ju)美國農(nong)業部(bu)(USDA)公布的數據(ju),3月(yue)11-17日的美棉(mian)出口簽約量(liang)和裝運量(liang)大(da)幅(fu)上升,說明市場(chang)需求仍然旺盛。不過,南半球棉(mian)花豐產(chan)(chan)在(zai)望,中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)供給充裕,不利(li)棉(mian)價(jia)繼續(xu)走高(gao)。據(ju)巴(ba)西農(nong)業部(bu)的最新(xin)預測(ce),本(ben)年度巴(ba)西棉(mian)花實播面積1950萬(wan)畝(mu),單產(chan)(chan)有望達(da)到(dao)100公斤/畝(mu),總產(chan)(chan)量(liang)195萬(wan)噸,同比增(zeng)幅(fu)超過60%;澳大(da)利(li)亞(ya)棉(mian)區天氣(qi)轉晴(qing),收獲(huo)即將完成,預計本(ben)年度澳棉(mian)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)將創下歷史最高(gao)紀錄,有關(guan)方面預測(ce)其產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為98萬(wan)噸,同比增(zeng)幅(fu)高(gao)達(da)154%。目前,利(li)比亞(ya)政局動蕩,大(da)宗商品走勢不確定性較(jiao)大(da),國際(ji)棉(mian)價(jia)將繼續(xu)維(wei)持(chi)振蕩格局的可能(neng)性較(jiao)大(da)。