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　　近期，紡織(zhi)企業(ye)繼續(xu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)調紗(sha)價(jia)，但(dan)成交仍(reng)未(wei)見回暖；受(shou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)游采購(gou)疲軟(ruan)影響(xiang)，滌綸短纖(xian)(xian)價(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)。紡織(zhi)銷售形勢仍(reng)然低迷，皮(pi)(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)采購(gou)乏力，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)企業(ye)存棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)意愿減弱，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)價(jia)繼續(xu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑(hua)。4月8日，32支純(chun)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)普(pu)梳紗(sha)報價(jia)36400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)400元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)1.1%；滌綸短纖(xian)(xian)報價(jia)13950元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)3.5%。內地(di)籽棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)6.05元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤（折(zhe)皮(pi)(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)價(jia)27271元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)），較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)0.13元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)2.1%。代表內地(di)標(biao)準級(ji)皮(pi)(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)的國家(jia)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)價(jia)格(ge)B指數29704元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)407元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)1.4%；新疆標(biao)準級(ji)皮(pi)(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)銷售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)30609元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)310元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)1%。鄭(zheng)州棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)期貨5月合約結算價(jia)29060元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)0.02%；全國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)交易市場電子撮合交易5月合同(tong)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)28446元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，與上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)持平。

　　國(guo)家緊縮性(xing)調控政策繼續(xu)推進(jin)，下(xia)(xia)游(you)消(xiao)費持續(xu)回(hui)升面臨(lin)挑(tiao)戰。中國(guo)人(ren)民銀行宣(xuan)布，自4月6日起(qi)，金(jin)(jin)融(rong)機構一年(nian)期存(cun)貸款(kuan)基準利率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別上(shang)調0.25個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，這是央行今年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)第二次上(shang)調利率(lv)。國(guo)家發(fa)改委宣(xuan)布自4月7日起(qi)，汽油、柴油零售(shou)(shou)最高(gao)限價每噸(dun)分(fen)(fen)別提(ti)高(gao)500元和400元，物價上(shang)漲壓力(li)增(zeng)加或將對國(guo)內消(xiao)費形成抑制。當前，紡(fang)(fang)織行業(ye)產(chan)銷形勢(shi)仍較(jiao)(jiao)低迷，下(xia)(xia)游(you)企(qi)業(ye)紗(sha)、布采(cai)購(gou)謹慎，紡(fang)(fang)織企(qi)業(ye)訂單疲軟，企(qi)業(ye)產(chan)成品庫(ku)存(cun)增(zeng)加，價格持續(xu)下(xia)(xia)滑，江浙地區部分(fen)(fen)紗(sha)廠已出(chu)現停產(chan)或限產(chan)現象，在下(xia)(xia)游(you)銷售(shou)(shou)啟(qi)動(dong)之(zhi)前，預計棉花需求(qiu)難以(yi)迅速釋放，棉花企(qi)業(ye)銷售(shou)(shou)壓力(li)較(jiao)(jiao)大，棉價將保(bao)持弱勢(shi)運行可(ke)能(neng)性(xing)較(jiao)(jiao)大，但受國(guo)際(ji)市場(chang)和資金(jin)(jin)炒作(zuo)因素的影響，也不(bu)排除大幅(fu)震蕩的可(ke)能(neng)。

　　隨(sui)著美元指數進一步下(xia)行，黃金(jin)和(he)石油等(deng)大(da)(da)宗商品價(jia)格大(da)(da)幅(fu)飆升，棉花期(qi)貨強勢(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。4月(yue)8日(ri)，紐約棉花期(qi)貨5月(yue)合約結算(suan)(suan)價(jia)202.97美分/磅(bang)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)7.42美分/磅(bang)，漲(zhang)幅(fu)3.8%。代表進口(kou)(kou)棉中(zhong)國(guo)主港到(dao)岸均價(jia)的國(guo)際棉花指數（M）按1%關稅計(ji)算(suan)(suan)，折人(ren)民幣進口(kou)(kou)成本(ben)38825元/噸(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)1139元/噸(dun)(dun)，漲(zhang)幅(fu)3.0%；按滑準稅計(ji)算(suan)(suan)，折人(ren)民幣進口(kou)(kou)成本(ben)39014元/噸(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)1128元/噸(dun)(dun)，漲(zhang)幅(fu)3.0%。

　　國(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)市(shi)(shi)行(xing)情(qing)(qing)保持(chi)堅挺。雖然寬松貨幣政策面(mian)臨轉(zhuan)向，歐洲央(yang)(yang)行(xing)加(jia)息等因素對(dui)市(shi)(shi)場造成(cheng)一定壓力，但綜合各方情(qing)(qing)況來(lai)(lai)看，短期(qi)(qi)內國(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)市(shi)(shi)場行(xing)情(qing)(qing)仍有望維持(chi)堅挺。首(shou)先，歐央(yang)(yang)行(xing)加(jia)息促(cu)使資金看好(hao)歐元(yuan)，美(mei)元(yuan)指數持(chi)續(xu)下(xia)滑，日(ri)本(ben)地(di)震及中東局勢恐慌(huang)情(qing)(qing)緒緩解，大宗商品價格再度(du)(du)走強(qiang)，棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)價格有望保持(chi)強(qiang)勢。其次(ci)，當前(qian)美(mei)棉(mian)(mian)銷售仍十分(fen)活躍。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)農業部公布的(de)(de)2011年(nian)(nian)3月25-31日(ri)的(de)(de)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)出(chu)(chu)口報告顯示遠期(qi)(qi)美(mei)棉(mian)(mian)需(xu)求旺盛(sheng)，當周(zhou)，2011/12年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)陸地(di)棉(mian)(mian)出(chu)(chu)口凈簽約量(liang)為(wei)6.08萬噸(dun)(dun)。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)陸地(di)棉(mian)(mian)出(chu)(chu)口裝運量(liang)為(wei)11.8萬噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)前(qian)周(zhou)增長15%，較(jiao)前(qian)四(si)周(zhou)平均水(shui)平增長27%，創下(xia)本(ben)年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)以來(lai)(lai)最高紀錄。另外，國(guo)(guo)際棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)咨詢委員會（ICAC）發布的(de)(de)4月份全(quan)球(qiu)產需(xu)預(yu)測，在(zai)3月基礎上(shang)(shang)將全(quan)球(qiu)棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)產量(liang)調減44.7萬噸(dun)(dun)至(zhi)2446.1萬噸(dun)(dun)，而將消(xiao)費量(liang)調增12.8萬噸(dun)(dun)至(zhi)2483.1萬噸(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)末庫(ku)存消(xiao)費比降至(zhi)33%，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)月下(xia)調4個百分(fen)點(dian)。