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　　近期(qi)，受(shou)下游(you)補庫需(xu)求帶動，紗(sha)線銷(xiao)(xiao)售情況略有(you)好轉，純棉(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)價(jia)(jia)格跌(die)(die)(die)勢放緩；滌棉(mian)(mian)(mian)紗(sha)銷(xiao)(xiao)售雖有(you)啟動，但庫存壓力較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大拖累了滌短行情。盡管下游(you)市場(chang)出現(xian)(xian)回暖跡象，紡織企業采(cai)購(gou)依然謹慎(shen)，前期(qi)惜售的棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花企業存棉(mian)(mian)(mian)信心(xin)不足(zu)，部(bu)分企業繼續下調(diao)現(xian)(xian)貨報價(jia)(jia)。4月(yue)22日，32支(zhi)純棉(mian)(mian)(mian)普梳(shu)紗(sha)報價(jia)(jia)36000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.3%；滌綸短纖(xian)報價(jia)(jia)13850元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.7%。內地籽棉(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)5.76元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤（折皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)收購(gou)價(jia)(jia)25960元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)0.1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/斤，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.7%。代表(biao)內地標準級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)的國家(jia)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花價(jia)(jia)格B指數28775元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)653元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)2.2%；新疆標準級皮(pi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)銷(xiao)(xiao)售均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)29567元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)612元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)2.0%。鄭州棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花期(qi)貨5月(yue)合約結算(suan)價(jia)(jia)28240元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)265元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)0.9%；全國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花交易(yi)市場(chang)電子撮合交易(yi)5月(yue)合同均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)27531元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)下跌(die)(die)(die)497元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)1.8%。

　　預(yu)計(ji)國內(nei)棉價(jia)仍(reng)(reng)將(jiang)維持穩(wen)(wen)中趨弱格局。首先，4月20日(ri)(ri)山東某大(da)型(xing)(xing)紡織集團(tuan)下調(diao)皮棉采購(gou)價(jia)500元(yuan)/噸，329級(ji)為(wei)27500元(yuan)/噸，429級(ji)為(wei)27200元(yuan)/噸，周邊小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)棉企交貨(huo)積極，表明(ming)當前(qian)(qian)部分企業落(luo)袋為(wei)安的心態，或將(jiang)刺(ci)激大(da)型(xing)(xing)紡織企業進一步下調(diao)皮棉采購(gou)價(jia)；其次(ci)，近期(qi)紗線(xian)銷售雖好于前(qian)(qian)期(qi)，但紡織企業仍(reng)(reng)面臨較大(da)的庫存(cun)壓力(li)，加(jia)上近來人(ren)民幣呈(cheng)現加(jia)速(su)升值勢(shi)頭，4月22日(ri)(ri)美元(yuan)兌(dui)人(ren)民幣匯率為(wei)6.5156，再創匯改以來最高(gao)記(ji)錄(lu)，紡織內(nei)外銷形勢(shi)相當嚴峻；最后，央(yang)(yang)行(xing)4月21日(ri)(ri)開始上調(diao)金(jin)融機構人(ren)民幣存(cun)款準備金(jin)率0.5個百分比，銀行(xing)存(cun)款準備金(jin)率達到20.5%的歷史新高(gao)，近日(ri)(ri)舉行(xing)的2011年經貿(mao)形勢(shi)報告會上，央(yang)(yang)行(xing)副行(xing)長胡曉(xiao)煉(lian)再次(ci)傳達了監管層抗擊通脹(zhang)的決心。綜上，目(mu)前(qian)(qian)紡織下游銷勢(shi)仍(reng)(reng)待回(hui)暖，產成(cheng)品庫存(cun)壓力(li)猶在，資金(jin)周轉困難，現貨(huo)采購(gou)謹(jin)慎，預(yu)計(ji)國內(nei)棉價(jia)仍(reng)(reng)將(jiang)穩(wen)(wen)中趨弱。

　　受南半球新棉(mian)即將(jiang)大量上市和紡織采購需求低迷(mi)影響，紐約(yue)(yue)期貨(huo)價格跌(die)至(zhi)兩個多月(yue)來低點。4月(yue)22日，紐約(yue)(yue)棉(mian)花(hua)期貨(huo)5月(yue)合約(yue)(yue)結算價186.67美分(fen)/磅，較上周(zhou)下跌(die)8.85美分(fen)/磅，跌(die)幅4.5%。代(dai)表進(jin)口棉(mian)中(zhong)國主港到岸(an)均價的國際(ji)棉(mian)花(hua)指數（M）按1%關(guan)稅計算，折人(ren)民(min)幣進(jin)口成本34814元(yuan)/噸，較上周(zhou)下跌(die)1681元(yuan)/噸，跌(die)幅4.6%；按滑準稅計算，折人(ren)民(min)幣進(jin)口成本35043元(yuan)/噸，較上周(zhou)下跌(die)1665元(yuan)/噸，跌(die)幅4.5%。

　　美聯儲貨幣政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)寬松(song)環境與(yu)歐洲央行緊縮政(zheng)策(ce)周(zhou)期形成鮮明對比，標準普(pu)爾(er)公司4月18日調降美國(guo)長期主權債務評級由“穩定”至(zhi)“負面”，使市(shi)(shi)場焦(jiao)點從歐元區債務危(wei)機轉(zhuan)向美國(guo)財政(zheng)問題，導致美元全(quan)線潰敗，美元指(zhi)數于(yu)4月21日最低(di)探(tan)至(zhi)73.74，刷新金(jin)融危(wei)機以來最低(di)水(shui)平，為(wei)大宗商品再度走高(gao)提供動力(li)。然而，眼(yan)下國(guo)際(ji)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價走勢更多受制于(yu)基本面因素。由于(yu)紡織采購需求乏力(li)，外棉(mian)(mian)(mian)訂單(dan)撤銷(xiao)現象仍(reng)在(zai)發生，4月8-14日的(de)美棉(mian)(mian)(mian)出口簽(qian)約量驟降至(zhi)不足1萬噸，持續低(di)迷的(de)需求或將繼續壓制國(guo)際(ji)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價走勢。值得注意的(de)是，目前(qian)北半球產(chan)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)國(guo)陸續進入播種季節，市(shi)(shi)場關注焦(jiao)點開始轉(zhuan)向諸如美國(guo)產(chan)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區較為(wei)嚴重(zhong)的(de)旱情上(shang)，未來天氣狀況(kuang)對國(guo)際(ji)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)價走勢的(de)影(ying)響或將凸顯(xian)。