發布(bu)時間：2016-04-21
隨著我(wo)國經濟(ji)社會(hui)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)逐(zhu)漸步入(ru)新常態(tai)，電(dian)力消費增速相應(ying)呈現換擋態(tai)勢。2014年，我(wo)國全社會(hui)用電(dian)量同比(bi)增長3.8%，為(wei)近年來新低。特別是由于當前(qian)經濟(ji)下行壓力較大，一些(xie)業(ye)界(jie)人士對未(wei)來十年電(dian)力工(gong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)前(qian)景(jing)心懷隱(yin)憂，對電(dian)力投資空間(jian)是否廣闊存(cun)有疑慮。我(wo)們認為(wei)，對電(dian)力發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)空間(jian)和態(tai)勢的判斷(duan)，必(bi)須(xu)歷(li)史地、具體地分析(xi)，既要縱觀世(shi)界(jie)主(zhu)要國家工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)過程中電(dian)力工(gong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)普遍(bian)規(gui)律，又(you)要考慮我(wo)國全面建成小(xiao)康社會(hui)歷(li)史進程的現實需要。可(ke)以判斷(duan)，今后五年我(wo)國電(dian)力工(gong)業(ye)將進入(ru)提質增效、科學發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的關鍵時(shi)期，未(wei)來的發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)動力依然強(qiang)勁，投資前(qian)景(jing)仍很廣闊。
一、“十三五”電力需求研判
黨的(de)(de)十八大以來(lai)，習(xi)近平總(zong)書記提出(chu)了“四個全面(mian)”的(de)(de)戰略布局，將全面(mian)建成(cheng)小康(kang)社會(hui)定位為(wei)“實現中華民族偉大復興中國(guo)夢(meng)的(de)(de)關鍵一步(bu)(bu)”。我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)總(zong)量已于“十一五”末超過日本，成(cheng)為(wei)僅次于美(mei)國(guo)的(de)(de)世(shi)界第二大經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)體(ti)。近年(nian)來(lai)我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)在(zai)“新常態”下保持(chi)平穩運行，經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)結構調整(zheng)出(chu)現積極變化(hua)，全面(mian)建成(cheng)小康(kang)社會(hui)的(de)(de)物質基礎得到進一步(bu)(bu)夯實。未來(lai)電力、能(neng)源(yuan)工業要為(wei)全面(mian)建成(cheng)小康(kang)社會(hui)提供堅實保障和充足動力。
按照2020年(nian)(nian)全(quan)面(mian)建成小康社(she)會的要(yao)求(qiu)，2020年(nian)(nian)我國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)內生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)總值(zhi)要(yao)實現在2010年(nian)(nian)基(ji)礎上翻一(yi)番，達到(dao)(dao)13萬億美元(yuan)(yuan)（2010年(nian)(nian)價，下(xia)同），人均GDP要(yao)由(you)2014年(nian)(nian)的6400美元(yuan)(yuan)提高到(dao)(dao)10000美元(yuan)(yuan)左(zuo)右，2014-2020年(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)內生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)總值(zhi)年(nian)(nian)均增速將(jiang)(jiang)保持在7%左(zuo)右。根據國(guo)(guo)家城(cheng)鎮化發展規劃(hua)，我國(guo)(guo)常(chang)住人口城(cheng)鎮化率將(jiang)(jiang)由(you)2014年(nian)(nian)的54.8%提高到(dao)(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)的60%左(zuo)右，平均一(yi)年(nian)(nian)增加約一(yi)個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。與此同時，產(chan)(chan)業(ye)結(jie)構調(diao)整將(jiang)(jiang)繼續深化，據有關機(ji)構預測，一(yi)、二、三次產(chan)(chan)業(ye)比重(zhong)將(jiang)(jiang)由(you)2014年(nian)(nian)的9:43:48調(diao)整為2020年(nian)(nian)的8:39:53，其(qi)中二產(chan)(chan)業(ye)下(xia)降4個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)，三產(chan)(chan)業(ye)上升5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。
回顧(gu)世(shi)界主要發(fa)達(da)國家的(de)發(fa)展歷程，根據(ju)有關經濟(ji)、電(dian)力歷史數據(ju)資料分析，受不同的(de)工業(ye)化(hua)(hua)道路、城(cheng)鎮化(hua)(hua)進程、產業(ye)結構、發(fa)展水平(ping)、用能(neng)習慣等因素影響(xiang)，各個(ge)國家電(dian)力增速(su)有高(gao)低、快(kuai)慢的(de)差(cha)別。但總(zong)(zong)體來看，在與我(wo)國”十三五”期(qi)間(jian)相類似的(de)發(fa)展階(jie)段中，各國電(dian)力增速(su)和電(dian)力彈(dan)性系數總(zong)(zong)體保持在較高(gao)的(de)水平(ping)上。美國、日(ri)本、韓國是(shi)發(fa)達(da)國家中的(de)“老、中、青”典型(xing)，其發(fa)展歷程具有較強的(de)代表性。
從經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展和城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)水平(ping)的(de)(de)視角來看：美國(guo)(guo)(guo)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)老牌(pai)的(de)(de)發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展相(xiang)(xiang)對超(chao)前(qian)于城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)（與(yu)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)相(xiang)(xiang)比較(jiao)而言(yan)，下同(tong)），美國(guo)(guo)(guo)1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)均(jun)GDP已(yi)經(jing)達到(dao)10000美元(yuan)，1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)率由(you)(you)(you)56.5%提(ti)高至64%（相(xiang)(xiang)當(dang)于我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)未來十年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)進程），1930-1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)、1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)5.3%和7.2%，電力(li)彈性(xing)(xing)系數分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)1.9、1.3。日本作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)“二戰(zhan)”以(yi)后迅速(su)發(fa)展起來的(de)(de)發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，1955-1963年(nian)(nian)(nian)處于工業化(hua)(hua)中后期(qi)，經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展水平(ping)（人(ren)均(jun)GDP）、城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)進程與(yu)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)未來十年(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)(xiang)似(si)，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由(you)(you)(you)6000美元(yuan)提(ti)高至10600美元(yuan)，同(tong)時城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)率也(ye)由(you)(you)(you)56%提(ti)高至66%，用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)高達11.5%，電力(li)彈性(xing)(xing)系數為(wei)(wei)1.4。韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)新興的(de)(de)發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)相(xiang)(xiang)對超(chao)前(qian)于經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展，1979-1985年(nian)(nian)(nian)，韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)(hua)率由(you)(you)(you)55%快速(su)提(ti)升至65%，用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)8.8%，電力(li)彈性(xing)(xing)系數為(wei)(wei)1.4。1986-1993年(nian)(nian)(nian)，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由(you)(you)(you)6300美元(yuan)提(ti)高至10400美元(yuan)，用(yong)(yong)電量年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)12.2%，電力(li)彈性(xing)(xing)系數為(wei)(wei)1.5。
從人(ren)均(jun)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)水平(ping)的(de)(de)視角(jiao)來看：2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我國(guo)(guo)人(ren)均(jun)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量已(yi)突(tu)破4000千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，相當于1961年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)、1973年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)日本和1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)韓(han)國(guo)(guo)。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)1961-1966年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)5.8%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)7.5%，單位(wei)GDP電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗為(wei)0.23-0.25千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)/美(mei)元(yuan)并保持(chi)微(wei)增(zeng)(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性(xing)系(xi)數為(wei)1.3。日本1973-1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)3.1%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)3.6%，單位(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗為(wei)0.18-0.19千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)/美(mei)元(yuan)并保持(chi)微(wei)增(zeng)(zeng)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性(xing)系(xi)數為(wei)1.2。韓(han)國(guo)(guo)1996-2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)3.8%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)8.9%，單位(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加，由(you)0.33提高(gao)到0.43千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)/美(mei)元(yuan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈(dan)性(xing)系(xi)數為(wei)2.3。
我(wo)國(guo)(guo)是“后發(fa)”的(de)工業(ye)化國(guo)(guo)家(jia)，應在吸取(qu)他國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)驗的(de)基礎上，立足國(guo)(guo)情做好謀劃、科(ke)學(xue)發(fa)展(zhan)。當前(qian)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)單(dan)位GDP電耗(hao)0.63千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)/美元，遠高于(yu)發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家(jia)，是美國(guo)(guo)的(de)2.4倍(bei)、日本的(de)3.5倍(bei)、韓國(guo)(guo)的(de)1.4倍(bei)，具(ju)備較大(da)的(de)下(xia)降潛力。我(wo)國(guo)(guo)政(zheng)府已經(jing)(jing)提出了“中國(guo)(guo)制造2025”、“互聯網+”等一(yi)系列(lie)戰略舉措支持經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)轉(zhuan)型升級，隨(sui)著產業(ye)結構調(diao)整成效(xiao)逐步顯現，單(dan)位電耗(hao)將(jiang)呈現下(xia)降趨勢。但應該(gai)指出，作為一(yi)個經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)處(chu)于(yu)快(kuai)速增長(chang)期、發(fa)展(zhan)不平衡(heng)的(de)大(da)國(guo)(guo)，扭(niu)轉(zhuan)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)慣性、推(tui)動經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)轉(zhuan)型升級需要時(shi)間和空間來循序、梯次推(tui)進，因而單(dan)位電耗(hao)下(xia)降將(jiang)是一(yi)個漸進的(de)過程(cheng)，不可能(neng)一(yi)蹴而就。“十三五”期間，要實現經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)平穩(wen)較快(kuai)增長(chang)，客觀(guan)上要求電力增速不能(neng)換擋(dang)過猛、減速太快(kuai)。
綜合測算表明(ming)，“十(shi)三(san)五”期間(jian)(jian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將較“十(shi)五”、“十(shi)一五”期兩位數(shu)的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)將有(you)所下降(jiang)(jiang)，由(you)高(gao)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)轉為中速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，我(wo)們將以低于1的(de)(de)彈性系數(shu)、適中的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)速(su)度支撐我(wo)國(guo)經濟較快增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。從目(mu)前至2020年，實現(xian)“全(quan)面建成小康社(she)會”的(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)，全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量年均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)5.5%-6.5%，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈性系數(shu)介于0.8-1區間(jian)(jian)內，2020年達(da)到(dao)(dao)7.6-8萬億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量達(da)到(dao)(dao)5500-5700千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比由(you)74%下降(jiang)(jiang)至70%左(zuo)右(you)，三(san)產(chan)業(ye)和居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)比由(you)24%提(ti)高(gao)至28%左(zuo)右(you)。2020年之后，我(wo)們將站在全(quan)面小康的(de)(de)新起點上向實現(xian)“中等(deng)發達(da)”的(de)(de)長(chang)期目(mu)標(biao)穩步邁進(jin)。展望到(dao)(dao)2030年，我(wo)國(guo)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量達(da)到(dao)(dao)10-11萬億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量約(yue)為7000~8000千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時，期間(jian)(jian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)進(jin)一步下降(jiang)(jiang)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比繼(ji)續下降(jiang)(jiang)，三(san)產(chan)業(ye)和居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比繼(ji)續提(ti)升(sheng)。
二、“十三五”電源發展前景
中(zhong)央財經領導小(xiao)組第六次會議的(de)(de)召開(kai)，標志著我國(guo)在全面建成(cheng)小(xiao)康社會的(de)(de)征(zheng)程中(zhong)，進入到(dao)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產(chan)和(he)消費(fei)革命(ming)的(de)(de)新階段。按(an)照能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)革命(ming)的(de)(de)總體(ti)(ti)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求，要(yao)(yao)(yao)加快電(dian)力結構(gou)(gou)優化(hua)調整，實施非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展和(he)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)高效(xiao)清潔利用并舉，形成(cheng)水電(dian)、可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、核電(dian)、煤電(dian)、氣電(dian)等各類電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)協調發(fa)展、多(duo)輪(lun)驅動的(de)(de)電(dian)力生產(chan)和(he)供(gong)應體(ti)(ti)系。既要(yao)(yao)(yao)注重整體(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)結構(gou)(gou)調整，又要(yao)(yao)(yao)充分(fen)挖掘(jue)每個(ge)品種(zhong)的(de)(de)優化(hua)潛力。
截至2014年(nian)(nian)底，我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總容量達到13.6億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，其中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)化石能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占約2/3，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)非(fei)化石能源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占約1/3。初(chu)步測(ce)算2020年(nian)(nian)我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總需(xu)(xu)(xu)求約20億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦左右，2015-2020年(nian)(nian)約需(xu)(xu)(xu)新增6.5億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦左右。展望到2030年(nian)(nian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總需(xu)(xu)(xu)求約28億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦左右。未來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展要綜合考(kao)慮開發(fa)(fa)(fa)潛力、開發(fa)(fa)(fa)成本、市場消納(na)、技術進步、環(huan)境社會影響等(deng)因素。
從資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)稟賦和(he)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)潛力來(lai)(lai)看，各類電(dian)源(yuan)都具(ju)有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)大發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)空間，特別是非化石能源(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)潛力相(xiang)對較(jiao)(jiao)大。煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)豐(feng)富(fu)，保有(you)(you)儲量1.38萬億噸(dun)，按(an)未(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)產量及可(ke)(ke)(ke)供用(yong)于發(fa)(fa)電(dian)用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)量來(lai)(lai)估算，可(ke)(ke)(ke)支撐裝機15億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)。通過積(ji)極進(jin)口補充(chong)，遠景天然氣用(yong)于發(fa)(fa)電(dian)的資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)量可(ke)(ke)(ke)支撐氣電(dian)裝機2億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)。水能、風能、太陽能資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)豐(feng)富(fu)，其(qi)中常規水電(dian)技術可(ke)(ke)(ke)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)量約(yue)6.6億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、待開(kai)發(fa)(fa)程度達(da)(da)60%，據(ju)有(you)(you)關機構測算風電(dian)、太陽能理論可(ke)(ke)(ke)支撐裝機均可(ke)(ke)(ke)達(da)(da)到10億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)。通過國內開(kai)發(fa)(fa)、海外開(kai)發(fa)(fa)、國際(ji)貿易等多渠道并舉，未(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)核電(dian)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)為充(chong)足的資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)保障。
另(ling)一方(fang)面，隨著(zhu)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源的快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，“十三五”電(dian)(dian)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的清(qing)潔(jie)化(hua)、低(di)碳化(hua)水(shui)平將(jiang)明顯(xian)(xian)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)，但總體發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本、整體電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平將(jiang)呈現上升趨(qu)勢。隨著(zhu)清(qing)潔(jie)高(gao)(gao)效(xiao)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術(shu)的推廣應用(yong)，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)將(jiang)保(bao)持穩中有升，考慮碳稅等外部成(cheng)(cheng)本內部化(hua)后(hou)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本將(jiang)有所(suo)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)。氣電(dian)(dian)國產化(hua)有利于(yu)工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)降(jiang)低(di)，但用(yong)氣價(jia)格(ge)上升將(jiang)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本。后(hou)續(xu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)大多遠離負荷中心，要妥善處理好生(sheng)態保(bao)護(hu)、庫區移民(min)、國際關系等問題，工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)、發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本、送出成(cheng)(cheng)本將(jiang)顯(xian)(xian)著(zhu)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)。隨著(zhu)核(he)電(dian)(dian)安(an)全(quan)標準的不斷提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)總體上保(bao)持上升的趨(qu)勢。隨著(zhu)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)的規模化(hua)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)和裝備技(ji)術(shu)的成(cheng)(cheng)熟，工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)將(jiang)會(hui)降(jiang)低(di)，但由(you)于(yu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)具有隨機(ji)性(xing)和波(bo)動(dong)性(xing)，需(xu)要通(tong)過(guo)加強(qiang)系統(tong)調峰儲能(neng)能(neng)力建設、健全(quan)輔助服(fu)務市場機(ji)制等手段(duan)來促進系統(tong)安(an)全(quan)、穩定(ding)、經(jing)濟(ji)運(yun)行(xing)。
按照“優先(xian)利用非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、按需發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)”的總體原則，要(yao)積極發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，安全(quan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)，大力(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，優化(hua)(hua)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)，清潔高(gao)效發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)。初步測算，到2020年(nian)(nian)，非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)比約(yue)為(wei)4:6，非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)比重(zhong)較(jiao)2014年(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)約(yue)6個百分點。其(qi)中(zhong)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)（含(han)抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)）裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)到3.9億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，新增(zeng)9000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)到約(yue)5800萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)，新增(zeng)約(yue)3800萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)；風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)到3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，新增(zeng)1.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)；煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)到12.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，新增(zeng)3.3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)；其(qi)他發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)約(yue)3000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)。展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)望到2030年(nian)(nian)，非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)比重(zhong)將進一(yi)步上升，非化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)比約(yue)為(wei)4.5:5.5。
三、“十三五”電力格局展望
能源(yuan)資源(yuan)稟賦及區域(yu)經濟(ji)發展決定了(le)我國的能源(yuan)格(ge)局，電力(li)格(ge)局要服從(cong)于能源(yuan)格(ge)局。總體來說，東(dong)(dong)北(bei)將基本保持自平衡(heng)，華北(bei)主(zhu)(zhu)送(song)華東(dong)(dong)，西北(bei)主(zhu)(zhu)送(song)華中(zhong)，西藏主(zhu)(zhu)送(song)華中(zhong)和南(nan)方(fang)。
從電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)布局來看(kan)，受能源(yuan)資源(yuan)、環境保(bao)護(hu)、市(shi)場(chang)消(xiao)納等(deng)因(yin)素影響(xiang)，“十三(san)五(wu)”各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)應加(jia)強統籌、科(ke)學規(gui)劃(hua)，因(yin)時(shi)因(yin)地(di)(di)(di)制(zhi)宜(yi)，不能盲目擴張(zhang)，也(ye)不能因(yin)噎廢食。隨著水(shui)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程度的(de)(de)(de)(de)不斷提高(gao)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“主(zhu)(zhu)戰場(chang)”將進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)西移，“十三(san)五(wu)”新(xin)增水(shui)電(dian)(dian)將主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)集(ji)中在(zai)(zai)金沙(sha)江(jiang)(jiang)、雅(ya)礱江(jiang)(jiang)、大渡河、瀾滄江(jiang)(jiang)等(deng)流(liu)域，2020年(nian)西南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)規(gui)模將達(da)到1.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右，約(yue)占(zhan)當年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國水(shui)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)51%。核(he)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)必須堅持(chi)采(cai)用國際最(zui)高(gao)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)標準(zhun)，確保(bao)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)運行，“十三(san)五(wu)”核(he)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)山東(dong)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇、浙江(jiang)(jiang)、遼寧(ning)(ning)、福建(jian)、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西、海(hai)(hai)南(nan)等(deng)沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)地(di)(di)(di)區，東(dong)部(bu)沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)核(he)電(dian)(dian)帶初步(bu)形成規(gui)模；遠(yuan)期在(zai)(zai)充分(fen)論證的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)努力實現核(he)電(dian)(dian)向內陸地(di)(di)(di)區穩妥(tuo)推進(jin)(jin)。可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)堅持(chi)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、輸送(song)、市(shi)場(chang)同步(bu)規(gui)劃(hua)，“十三(san)五(wu)”將由集(ji)中開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)向集(ji)中、分(fen)散(san)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)并舉(ju)轉變，其中風電(dian)(dian)集(ji)中開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)三(san)北(bei)地(di)(di)(di)區和(he)東(dong)部(bu)沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)，重點依托酒泉、哈(ha)密、蒙西、蒙東(dong)、冀(ji)北(bei)、吉林、黑龍江(jiang)(jiang)、山東(dong)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇等(deng)9個基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)建(jian)設(she)；太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)集(ji)中開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)新(xin)疆(jiang)、青海(hai)(hai)等(deng)西北(bei)地(di)(di)(di)區；其他地(di)(di)(di)區風電(dian)(dian)和(he)太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)以分(fen)散(san)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)。煤電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)要(yao)(yao)堅持(chi)高(gao)效、清潔，大力推進(jin)(jin)高(gao)參數、大容(rong)量(liang)清潔發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)推廣(guang)和(he)應用，“十三(san)五(wu)”重點依托鄂(e)爾多(duo)斯、錫盟、晉北(bei)、晉中、晉東(dong)、陜(shan)北(bei)、寧(ning)(ning)東(dong)、哈(ha)密、準(zhun)東(dong)等(deng)9個煤電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)，建(jian)設(she)規(gui)模約(yue)1億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右；為(wei)滿足(zu)中東(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區負荷發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)需要(yao)(yao)，依托蒙華鐵路煤運通道等(deng)在(zai)(zai)中部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區建(jian)設(she)一(yi)(yi)批煤電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)，在(zai)(zai)滿足(zu)等(deng)煤量(liang)（減煤量(liang)）控制(zhi)目標的(de)(de)(de)(de)前提下在(zai)(zai)東(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)一(yi)(yi)定規(gui)模的(de)(de)(de)(de)超低排放煤電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)。
從電(dian)(dian)力流向來看(kan)，為滿(man)足北方(fang)煤電(dian)(dian)、西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)的電(dian)(dian)力送(song)出和京(jing)津(jin)冀(ji)魯、江浙滬(hu)、廣東(dong)(dong)以及華(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)四(si)省(sheng)等(deng)地區受(shou)電(dian)(dian)需要(yao)，到2020年，我國(guo)將新增大氣(qi)污(wu)染防治行動計劃(hua)十(shi)二條輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)、酒泉-湖南(nan)、準東(dong)(dong)-皖南(nan)、東(dong)(dong)北外(wai)送(song)、四(si)川-華(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)四(si)省(sheng)等(deng)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)，“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)”北、中(zhong)(zhong)、南(nan)三個通(tong)(tong)道(dao)的輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)規模仍將保(bao)持快速增長勢頭，由目前的1.3億(yi)千瓦(wa)提高至2億(yi)千瓦(wa)左右。其中(zhong)(zhong)，北通(tong)(tong)道(dao)將延續(xu)山(shan)西(xi)、內蒙(meng)古送(song)電(dian)(dian)京(jing)津(jin)冀(ji)魯為主的格局，中(zhong)(zhong)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)形成三峽、西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)與(yu)山(shan)西(xi)、蒙(meng)西(xi)、新疆(jiang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)并(bing)舉送(song)華(hua)東(dong)(dong)、華(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)的格局，南(nan)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)延續(xu)西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)送(song)廣東(dong)(dong)、廣西(xi)的格局。
四、“十三五”電力建設投資空間
“十三(san)五(wu)”期間，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)力(li)工業(ye)將由(you)規(gui)模(mo)擴張型(xing)發(fa)展(zhan)向質量效益型(xing)發(fa)展(zhan)轉變(bian)，發(fa)展(zhan)質量明顯提升、結構(gou)更(geng)加優化(hua)、科(ke)技含量顯著加強，電(dian)力(li)建設和投(tou)資(zi)(zi)空間依然巨大(da)。盡管“十三(san)五(wu)”期間電(dian)力(li)增(zeng)速由(you)高(gao)速轉為中(zhong)(zhong)速，但由(you)于我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)源裝機基數(shu)巨大(da)，年均增(zeng)量裝機規(gui)模(mo)仍將創歷史(shi)新(xin)高(gao)。平(ping)均每年的(de)新(xin)增(zeng)裝機約1.1億千瓦，相(xiang)當(dang)于一(yi)個意(yi)大(da)利或(huo)巴西，相(xiang)當(dang)于我(wo)國(guo)(guo)1988年的(de)總(zong)裝機。大(da)致(zhi)匡算2015-2020年電(dian)源項目投(tou)資(zi)(zi)需求約3.2萬億元左右，其中(zhong)(zhong)化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占約40%，非化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占約60%。
另一(yi)(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，國(guo)(guo)際電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)和(he)(he)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)前景(jing)也十分廣闊。廣大的新(xin)興經(jing)濟(ji)體將(jiang)是未來經(jing)濟(ji)發展主要的“增(zeng)長(chang)極”，我們與新(xin)興經(jing)濟(ji)體的互動和(he)(he)共(gong)同發展將(jiang)創造(zao)出巨大的空(kong)間(jian)。“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”戰略(lve)從構想步入實(shi)施(shi)(shi)階段(duan)后，我國(guo)(guo)將(jiang)加(jia)快(kuai)形成全方(fang)位開(kai)(kai)放的新(xin)格局，為促進(jin)產業轉型升級、紓解(jie)過剩(sheng)產能、充分利用(yong)兩個(ge)市場和(he)(he)兩種資(zi)(zi)(zi)源提(ti)供難得(de)的機(ji)遇。“加(jia)強能源基礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施(shi)(shi)互聯(lian)互通合(he)作”是“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的合(he)作重點之一(yi)(yi)(yi)。目前，全球有(you)32個(ge)新(xin)興經(jing)濟(ji)體的人均裝(zhuang)機(ji)低(di)于中國(guo)(guo)，若使其人均裝(zhuang)機(ji)達到(dao)中國(guo)(guo)水平，將(jiang)有(you)約(yue)16.5億千瓦(wa)的裝(zhuang)機(ji)建(jian)(jian)設(she)空(kong)間(jian)，按照(zhao)平均單位造(zao)價約(yue)8000元(yuan)/千瓦(wa)測算，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)需(xu)求約(yue)13萬(wan)億元(yuan)，需(xu)求最大的印度裝(zhuang)機(ji)建(jian)(jian)設(she)空(kong)間(jian)達7.5億千瓦(wa)，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)需(xu)求約(yue)6萬(wan)億元(yuan)。電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)需(xu)要巨大的資(zi)(zi)(zi)金、裝(zhuang)備、技(ji)術和(he)(he)人才(cai)投(tou)入，我們可(ke)以充分發揮在電力(li)(li)裝(zhuang)備制造(zao)、工程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)的領先(xian)優勢，同時借助(zhu)亞洲基礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)銀(yin)行、絲路(lu)基金、金磚國(guo)(guo)家開(kai)(kai)發銀(yin)行等(deng)金融平臺有(you)效解(jie)決電力(li)(li)項目投(tou)融資(zi)(zi)(zi)難題，為促進(jin)新(xin)興經(jing)濟(ji)體電力(li)(li)基礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施(shi)(shi)的持續、快(kuai)速發展，打造(zao)合(he)作共(gong)贏的“中國(guo)(guo)+N命(ming)運共(gong)同體”作出積極貢獻。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)具(ju)有資(zi)(zi)金密(mi)集、資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)密(mi)集、技術密(mi)集以及項目(mu)建(jian)設周期長的(de)特點，為避(bi)免電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發展(zhan)的(de)大起大落，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)應適(shi)度超前于國民經(jing)濟(ji)和(he)社(she)(she)(she)會發展(zhan)。“十三五”期間既是全面建(jian)成(cheng)小(xiao)康社(she)(she)(she)會的(de)攻堅階段，也是電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)發展(zhan)的(de)關鍵時期，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)建(jian)設任務依然繁重。有必要超前謀劃(hua)、合理安排(pai)，把握好(hao)發展(zhan)的(de)節奏，更好(hao)地滿足國民經(jing)濟(ji)和(he)社(she)(she)(she)會發展(zhan)需要。
五、結語
新一(yi)輪(lun)電(dian)(dian)力(li)體制改革大幕已經拉開，發(fa)展(zhan)的動力(li)和活力(li)進一(yi)步迸發(fa)，改革紅利(li)不(bu)斷釋放，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)力(li)工業將(jiang)進入新的戰略機(ji)遇期。我(wo)們要把握發(fa)展(zhan)大勢，做好科學規劃，抓住投資機(ji)遇，搞好電(dian)(dian)力(li)建(jian)設，齊心協力(li)促進電(dian)(dian)力(li)工業科學發(fa)展(zhan)，為全面建(jian)成小(xiao)康(kang)社會提供堅(jian)強有力(li)的支撐。
（本文章摘自4月20日《中(zhong)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源報(bao)》。汪(wang)建(jian)平，中(zhong)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源建(jian)設集團有限(xian)公司董事長、黨委書(shu)記，國家(jia)電(dian)力規劃研究中(zhong)心(xin)主任。吳云，中(zhong)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源建(jian)設集團有限(xian)公司總(zong)工程師，國家(jia)電(dian)力規劃研究中(zhong)心(xin)常(chang)務(wu)副(fu)主任。）