發布時間：2016-04-21
隨著我(wo)國(guo)經濟(ji)社(she)會發展(zhan)(zhan)逐漸步入新(xin)常態(tai)(tai)，電力(li)(li)(li)消費增(zeng)速相應呈(cheng)現換擋態(tai)(tai)勢。2014年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電量同比增(zeng)長3.8%，為近(jin)年(nian)來新(xin)低。特(te)別是(shi)由于(yu)當前經濟(ji)下行壓(ya)力(li)(li)(li)較大，一(yi)些(xie)業界人士對(dui)未(wei)(wei)來十年(nian)電力(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業發展(zhan)(zhan)前景心懷(huai)隱(yin)憂，對(dui)電力(li)(li)(li)投(tou)資空間(jian)是(shi)否(fou)廣(guang)闊(kuo)存有疑慮。我(wo)們認(ren)為，對(dui)電力(li)(li)(li)發展(zhan)(zhan)空間(jian)和(he)態(tai)(tai)勢的(de)(de)判(pan)斷，必(bi)須歷(li)(li)史(shi)地(di)、具體(ti)地(di)分析，既要縱觀世界主要國(guo)家工(gong)業化過程中電力(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業發展(zhan)(zhan)普遍規律，又要考(kao)慮我(wo)國(guo)全(quan)面建(jian)成小康社(she)會歷(li)(li)史(shi)進(jin)程的(de)(de)現實(shi)需要。可以判(pan)斷，今后五年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)電力(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業將(jiang)進(jin)入提質增(zeng)效、科學發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)關鍵時期(qi)，未(wei)(wei)來的(de)(de)發展(zhan)(zhan)動力(li)(li)(li)依然(ran)強勁，投(tou)資前景仍很(hen)廣(guang)闊(kuo)。
一、“十三五”電力需求研判
黨的十八大以來，習近(jin)平(ping)總書(shu)記提(ti)出(chu)了“四個全(quan)面(mian)”的戰略布局，將全(quan)面(mian)建成小(xiao)康(kang)社(she)會(hui)定位為(wei)“實(shi)現中(zhong)華(hua)民族偉(wei)大復興中(zhong)國夢的關鍵一(yi)步”。我(wo)國經(jing)濟總量已于(yu)“十一(yi)五”末(mo)超過日本(ben)，成為(wei)僅次于(yu)美(mei)國的世界(jie)第二大經(jing)濟體。近(jin)年來我(wo)國經(jing)濟在“新常態”下(xia)保持平(ping)穩運行，經(jing)濟結構調整(zheng)出(chu)現積極變化(hua)，全(quan)面(mian)建成小(xiao)康(kang)社(she)會(hui)的物質(zhi)基礎得到進一(yi)步夯實(shi)。未(wei)來電力、能源工業要(yao)為(wei)全(quan)面(mian)建成小(xiao)康(kang)社(she)會(hui)提(ti)供堅實(shi)保障和充足(zu)動力。
按照2020年(nian)全面建(jian)成小康社會的(de)要求，2020年(nian)我國(guo)國(guo)內生產(chan)(chan)總(zong)值要實現在2010年(nian)基礎上(shang)翻一番(fan)，達到13萬億美元（2010年(nian)價(jia)，下(xia)同(tong)），人(ren)均GDP要由2014年(nian)的(de)6400美元提高到10000美元左右，2014-2020年(nian)國(guo)內生產(chan)(chan)總(zong)值年(nian)均增(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)保(bao)持在7%左右。根(gen)據國(guo)家城(cheng)鎮化(hua)(hua)發展(zhan)規劃，我國(guo)常(chang)住人(ren)口(kou)城(cheng)鎮化(hua)(hua)率將(jiang)由2014年(nian)的(de)54.8%提高到2020年(nian)的(de)60%左右，平均一年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)約一個(ge)百(bai)分點。與此同(tong)時，產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)結(jie)構調整將(jiang)繼續深化(hua)(hua)，據有關機(ji)構預測，一、二、三(san)次產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)比(bi)重將(jiang)由2014年(nian)的(de)9:43:48調整為2020年(nian)的(de)8:39:53，其中二產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)下(xia)降4個(ge)百(bai)分點，三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)上(shang)升(sheng)5個(ge)百(bai)分點。
回顧(gu)世(shi)界主(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)歷(li)程，根據有關經濟、電力歷(li)史(shi)數(shu)據資料分析，受不同的(de)工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)道(dao)路、城鎮化(hua)進程、產業(ye)(ye)結構、發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)水平、用(yong)能習慣(guan)等因素影響，各個國(guo)(guo)家(jia)電力增速有高(gao)低、快慢(man)的(de)差(cha)別(bie)。但總體來看，在(zai)與我國(guo)(guo)”十三(san)五”期(qi)間相類似的(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段中，各國(guo)(guo)電力增速和電力彈性(xing)系數(shu)總體保(bao)持在(zai)較(jiao)高(gao)的(de)水平上。美國(guo)(guo)、日本、韓國(guo)(guo)是(shi)發(fa)(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家(jia)中的(de)“老、中、青”典(dian)型，其發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)歷(li)程具有較(jiao)強的(de)代表(biao)性(xing)。
從經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)和城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)水平的視角來看：美國(guo)(guo)(guo)作為(wei)(wei)(wei)老牌的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)相(xiang)(xiang)對超前于城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)（與(yu)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)相(xiang)(xiang)比較而言，下同(tong)），美國(guo)(guo)(guo)1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)均(jun)GDP已經達(da)到10000美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)率(lv)(lv)由(you)56.5%提高至(zhi)64%（相(xiang)(xiang)當(dang)于我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)未(wei)來十年(nian)(nian)(nian)的城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)進程），1930-1940年(nian)(nian)(nian)、1940-1950年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)5.3%和7.2%，電力(li)(li)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.9、1.3。日本作為(wei)(wei)(wei)“二戰”以后(hou)迅速(su)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)起(qi)來的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，1955-1963年(nian)(nian)(nian)處于工業化(hua)中后(hou)期，經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)水平（人(ren)均(jun)GDP）、城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)進程與(yu)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)未(wei)來十年(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)(xiang)似，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由(you)6000美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)提高至(zhi)10600美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)時城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)率(lv)(lv)也由(you)56%提高至(zhi)66%，用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)高達(da)11.5%，電力(li)(li)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.4。韓(han)國(guo)(guo)(guo)作為(wei)(wei)(wei)新(xin)興的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家，城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)相(xiang)(xiang)對超前于經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，1979-1985年(nian)(nian)(nian)，韓(han)國(guo)(guo)(guo)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)化(hua)率(lv)(lv)由(you)55%快速(su)提升至(zhi)65%，用(yong)(yong)電年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)(wei)8.8%，電力(li)(li)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.4。1986-1993年(nian)(nian)(nian)，人(ren)均(jun)GDP由(you)6300美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)提高至(zhi)10400美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，用(yong)(yong)電量年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)(wei)(wei)12.2%，電力(li)(li)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.5。
從人(ren)均(jun)(jun)用電(dian)水平的視角來(lai)看(kan)：2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)我國人(ren)均(jun)(jun)用電(dian)量(liang)已突破(po)4000千(qian)瓦(wa)時，相當于1961年(nian)(nian)(nian)的美國、1973年(nian)(nian)(nian)日(ri)本(ben)和1996年(nian)(nian)(nian)的韓國。美國1961-1966年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速為(wei)5.8%，用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速約為(wei)7.5%，單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)GDP電(dian)耗為(wei)0.23-0.25千(qian)瓦(wa)時/美元并保持(chi)微增(zeng)，電(dian)力(li)(li)彈性(xing)系數為(wei)1.3。日(ri)本(ben)1973-1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速為(wei)3.1%，用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速約為(wei)3.6%，單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)電(dian)耗為(wei)0.18-0.19千(qian)瓦(wa)時/美元并保持(chi)微增(zeng)，電(dian)力(li)(li)彈性(xing)系數為(wei)1.2。韓國1996-2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)的GDP年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速為(wei)3.8%，用電(dian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速約為(wei)8.9%，單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)電(dian)耗逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加，由(you)0.33提(ti)高(gao)到0.43千(qian)瓦(wa)時/美元，電(dian)力(li)(li)彈性(xing)系數為(wei)2.3。
我國(guo)是“后(hou)發”的(de)(de)工業化國(guo)家，應(ying)(ying)在吸取他國(guo)經(jing)(jing)驗的(de)(de)基礎上，立足國(guo)情(qing)做好謀(mou)劃、科學發展(zhan)。當前我國(guo)單位GDP電(dian)(dian)耗(hao)0.63千瓦時(shi)(shi)/美(mei)元，遠高于發達國(guo)家，是美(mei)國(guo)的(de)(de)2.4倍(bei)、日本(ben)的(de)(de)3.5倍(bei)、韓國(guo)的(de)(de)1.4倍(bei)，具(ju)備較大(da)的(de)(de)下(xia)降潛力。我國(guo)政府已經(jing)(jing)提出了“中(zhong)國(guo)制(zhi)造2025”、“互聯網+”等(deng)一(yi)系列戰略舉措支持經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)轉型升級(ji)(ji)，隨(sui)著產業結(jie)構調整成(cheng)效(xiao)逐步顯現(xian)(xian)，單位電(dian)(dian)耗(hao)將呈現(xian)(xian)下(xia)降趨(qu)勢。但應(ying)(ying)該指出，作為一(yi)個經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展(zhan)處于快速(su)增長期、發展(zhan)不平衡的(de)(de)大(da)國(guo)，扭轉經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展(zhan)慣性、推動(dong)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)轉型升級(ji)(ji)需要(yao)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)和空間(jian)來循序、梯次推進，因而單位電(dian)(dian)耗(hao)下(xia)降將是一(yi)個漸進的(de)(de)過程(cheng)，不可(ke)能一(yi)蹴而就。“十三(san)五”期間(jian)，要(yao)實現(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)平穩較快增長，客觀(guan)上要(yao)求電(dian)(dian)力增速(su)不能換擋過猛、減速(su)太快。
綜合(he)測算表明，“十(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五(wu)(wu)”期間電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增速(su)(su)將(jiang)較(jiao)“十(shi)(shi)五(wu)(wu)”、“十(shi)(shi)一五(wu)(wu)”期兩位數的(de)增長(chang)(chang)將(jiang)有所下降(jiang)，由(you)高(gao)速(su)(su)增長(chang)(chang)轉為(wei)中速(su)(su)增長(chang)(chang)，我(wo)們將(jiang)以低(di)于1的(de)彈性(xing)(xing)系數、適(shi)中的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力增長(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)度支撐我(wo)國經濟較(jiao)快增長(chang)(chang)。從(cong)目(mu)(mu)前至(zhi)2020年(nian)，實現(xian)“全(quan)面建成小康社會”的(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)，全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)年(nian)均增速(su)(su)5.5%-6.5%，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力彈性(xing)(xing)系數介于0.8-1區間內，2020年(nian)達(da)到7.6-8萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，人均用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)到5500-5700千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中二產業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)由(you)74%下降(jiang)至(zhi)70%左右，三(san)(san)產業和居(ju)民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)由(you)24%提高(gao)至(zhi)28%左右。2020年(nian)之后，我(wo)們將(jiang)站在全(quan)面小康的(de)新起點上向實現(xian)“中等發(fa)達(da)”的(de)長(chang)(chang)期目(mu)(mu)標(biao)穩步邁進。展(zhan)望(wang)到2030年(nian)，我(wo)國全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達(da)到10-11萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，人均用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)約(yue)為(wei)7000~8000千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，期間用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)(su)進一步下降(jiang)，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)結構中二產業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)繼續下降(jiang)，三(san)(san)產業和居(ju)民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占比(bi)繼續提升。
二、“十三五”電源發展前景
中(zhong)(zhong)央財經領導(dao)小(xiao)組第六次會(hui)議的(de)(de)召開，標志著我國(guo)在(zai)全面建(jian)成小(xiao)康社會(hui)的(de)(de)征程中(zhong)(zhong)，進(jin)入(ru)到能(neng)源(yuan)生(sheng)產和消費革(ge)命的(de)(de)新階段。按(an)照能(neng)源(yuan)革(ge)命的(de)(de)總體(ti)(ti)要求，要加快電(dian)(dian)力(li)結構優(you)化(hua)調整，實施非化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)和化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)高效清潔利用并舉，形成水電(dian)(dian)、可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)、核電(dian)(dian)、煤電(dian)(dian)、氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)等各類電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)協調發(fa)展(zhan)、多輪驅(qu)動的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)生(sheng)產和供(gong)應體(ti)(ti)系。既(ji)要注(zhu)重(zhong)整體(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)結構調整，又要充分(fen)挖掘每(mei)個品種的(de)(de)優(you)化(hua)潛(qian)力(li)。
截至(zhi)2014年底，我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總容量達到13.6億千瓦(wa)，其中(zhong)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)等化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)占約2/3，水電(dian)(dian)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)等非化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)占約1/3。初步測(ce)算2020年我(wo)國發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總需求約20億千瓦(wa)左右(you)，2015-2020年約需新(xin)增6.5億千瓦(wa)左右(you)。展望到2030年，電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總需求約28億千瓦(wa)左右(you)。未來電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展要(yao)綜合考慮開發(fa)(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力、開發(fa)(fa)(fa)成本、市場(chang)消納、技術進步、環(huan)境社會影響等因素(su)。
從資(zi)源(yuan)稟賦和(he)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展潛(qian)力來(lai)看，各類電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)都具(ju)有較大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展空(kong)間，特(te)別(bie)是非化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力相(xiang)對較大(da)。煤炭資(zi)源(yuan)豐富(fu)(fu)，保有儲量(liang)(liang)1.38萬億(yi)(yi)噸，按(an)未(wei)(wei)來(lai)煤炭產量(liang)(liang)及可(ke)(ke)供(gong)用于(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)用煤量(liang)(liang)來(lai)估算，可(ke)(ke)支(zhi)撐裝機15億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)。通過(guo)積(ji)極進口(kou)補充，遠景天然氣用于(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)的(de)資(zi)源(yuan)量(liang)(liang)可(ke)(ke)支(zhi)撐氣電(dian)(dian)裝機2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)。水能(neng)(neng)、風(feng)能(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)豐富(fu)(fu)，其中常規水電(dian)(dian)技術可(ke)(ke)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)量(liang)(liang)約6.6億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)、待開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程(cheng)度達60%，據有關(guan)機構(gou)測(ce)算風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)理論可(ke)(ke)支(zhi)撐裝機均可(ke)(ke)達到10億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)。通過(guo)國(guo)內開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、海外開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、國(guo)際貿易等(deng)多渠道并舉，未(wei)(wei)來(lai)核電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)有較為充足的(de)資(zi)源(yuan)保障。
另一方面，隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)非(fei)化(hua)石能源(yuan)的(de)(de)快速發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，“十三五”電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)清(qing)(qing)潔化(hua)、低碳(tan)化(hua)水平(ping)將(jiang)明顯提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，但(dan)總(zong)體發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、整體電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)水平(ping)將(jiang)呈現上升(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)清(qing)(qing)潔高(gao)(gao)效煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)技術的(de)(de)推廣應用，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)程造價(jia)(jia)(jia)將(jiang)保持(chi)穩(wen)中(zhong)有升(sheng)(sheng)，考慮碳(tan)稅(shui)等外部成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)內部化(hua)后發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將(jiang)有所提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)國(guo)產化(hua)有利于(yu)工(gong)(gong)程造價(jia)(jia)(jia)降低，但(dan)用氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上升(sheng)(sheng)將(jiang)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)。后續(xu)水電(dian)(dian)大多遠離負荷(he)中(zhong)心，要妥善處理好生(sheng)態保護、庫區移民、國(guo)際關系(xi)(xi)等問題，工(gong)(gong)程造價(jia)(jia)(jia)、發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、送出成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將(jiang)顯著(zhu)(zhu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)核電(dian)(dian)安全標(biao)準的(de)(de)不斷(duan)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，核電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)程造價(jia)(jia)(jia)總(zong)體上保持(chi)上升(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)趨(qu)勢。隨(sui)(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)可(ke)再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)規模(mo)化(hua)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)和裝備技術的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)，工(gong)(gong)程造價(jia)(jia)(jia)將(jiang)會降低，但(dan)由于(yu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)具有隨(sui)(sui)機性(xing)(xing)和波動性(xing)(xing)，需要通過加強系(xi)(xi)統(tong)調峰儲能能力(li)建設(she)、健全輔助服(fu)務(wu)市場機制等手段來促(cu)進系(xi)(xi)統(tong)安全、穩(wen)定、經濟運行(xing)。
按(an)照(zhao)“優先(xian)利用非化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、按(an)需發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”的總(zong)體原則，要積極發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，安全發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，大力發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，優化(hua)(hua)(hua)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，清(qing)潔高效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。初步測算，到(dao)(dao)(dao)2020年，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比約(yue)為4:6，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比重較(jiao)2014年提(ti)高約(yue)6個百分點(dian)。其中，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)（含抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)）裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)3.9億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增(zeng)9000萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)約(yue)5800萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，新(xin)增(zeng)約(yue)3800萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)；風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)3億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增(zeng)1.8億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)12.2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，新(xin)增(zeng)3.3億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；其他(ta)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)約(yue)3000萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)望到(dao)(dao)(dao)2030年，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比重將進一(yi)步上升，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比約(yue)為4.5:5.5。
三、“十三五”電力格局展望
能源(yuan)資(zi)源(yuan)稟賦及(ji)區(qu)域經濟發展決定了我國的能源(yuan)格局(ju)，電力格局(ju)要服(fu)從于能源(yuan)格局(ju)。總體來(lai)說(shuo)，東北將(jiang)基本保持(chi)自(zi)平(ping)衡，華北主送華東，西北主送華中(zhong)，西藏(zang)主送華中(zhong)和南方。
從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)布局來看，受能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)、環(huan)境保護、市(shi)場(chang)消納(na)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)因素影響，“十(shi)(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五”各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)應加強統籌、科學規劃，因時(shi)因地制宜(yi)，不能(neng)(neng)盲目(mu)擴張，也不能(neng)(neng)因噎(ye)廢食。隨著水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程度(du)的(de)不斷提(ti)高，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)“主戰場(chang)”將(jiang)進一步西(xi)移(yi)，“十(shi)(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五”新增(zeng)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)將(jiang)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)金(jin)沙(sha)江(jiang)、雅(ya)礱江(jiang)、大渡(du)河(he)、瀾(lan)滄江(jiang)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)流域，2020年西(xi)南(nan)(nan)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)地開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)規模(mo)將(jiang)達到1.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右，約占當年全國(guo)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)的(de)51%。核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)必須(xu)堅持采用國(guo)際(ji)最高安(an)全標準，確(que)保安(an)全運行，“十(shi)(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五”核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)(zai)山東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇(su)(su)、浙江(jiang)、遼寧、福建(jian)、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西(xi)、海(hai)南(nan)(nan)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)沿海(hai)地區(qu)，東(dong)部(bu)沿海(hai)核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)帶初步形(xing)成規模(mo)；遠期在(zai)(zai)(zai)充(chong)分論證的(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)努力實(shi)現核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)向(xiang)內陸(lu)地區(qu)穩(wen)妥推(tui)進。可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)(yao)堅持開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、輸(shu)送、市(shi)場(chang)同步規劃，“十(shi)(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五”將(jiang)由集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為主向(xiang)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、分散(san)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)并(bing)舉(ju)轉變，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)(zai)三(san)(san)北(bei)地區(qu)和東(dong)部(bu)沿海(hai)，重(zhong)點依(yi)托酒泉、哈密(mi)、蒙西(xi)、蒙東(dong)、冀(ji)北(bei)、吉林(lin)、黑龍江(jiang)、山東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇(su)(su)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)9個(ge)(ge)基(ji)地開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)建(jian)設；太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)布局在(zai)(zai)(zai)新疆(jiang)、青海(hai)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)西(xi)北(bei)地區(qu)；其他地區(qu)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)以分散(san)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為主。煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)要(yao)(yao)(yao)堅持高效、清潔，大力推(tui)進高參數、大容(rong)量清潔發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技術的(de)推(tui)廣(guang)和應用，“十(shi)(shi)(shi)三(san)(san)五”重(zhong)點依(yi)托鄂爾多斯、錫盟、晉北(bei)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、晉東(dong)、陜北(bei)、寧東(dong)、哈密(mi)、準東(dong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)9個(ge)(ge)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)地，建(jian)設規模(mo)約1億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右；為滿足中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部(bu)地區(qu)負荷發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)，依(yi)托蒙華鐵路煤運通道等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)地區(qu)建(jian)設一批煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組，在(zai)(zai)(zai)滿足等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)煤量（減煤量）控制目(mu)標的(de)前提(ti)下在(zai)(zai)(zai)東(dong)部(bu)地區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)一定規模(mo)的(de)超低排放煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組。
從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力流向來看，為滿足北(bei)方煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力送(song)(song)出和京津冀魯、江浙滬、廣東(dong)以(yi)及(ji)華中(zhong)東(dong)四省等(deng)地區受電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需要，到2020年(nian)，我國將新增大氣污(wu)染防治行動(dong)計劃十二條輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道、酒泉(quan)-湖南(nan)(nan)、準東(dong)-皖南(nan)(nan)、東(dong)北(bei)外送(song)(song)、四川-華中(zhong)東(dong)四省等(deng)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道，“西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送(song)(song)”北(bei)、中(zhong)、南(nan)(nan)三個通(tong)(tong)(tong)道的(de)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規模仍將保持(chi)快速增長勢頭，由(you)目前的(de)1.3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)提高至2億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左右。其中(zhong)，北(bei)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道將延續(xu)山西(xi)(xi)、內蒙(meng)古送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)京津冀魯為主的(de)格局(ju)，中(zhong)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道形成(cheng)三峽、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)與山西(xi)(xi)、蒙(meng)西(xi)(xi)、新疆火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)并舉(ju)送(song)(song)華東(dong)、華中(zhong)的(de)格局(ju)，南(nan)(nan)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道延續(xu)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)(song)廣東(dong)、廣西(xi)(xi)的(de)格局(ju)。
四、“十三五”電力建設投資空間
“十三(san)五”期間，我國電(dian)力工業將(jiang)由(you)規模擴(kuo)張型發展(zhan)(zhan)向質(zhi)量效益型發展(zhan)(zhan)轉變，發展(zhan)(zhan)質(zhi)量明顯(xian)(xian)提升、結構(gou)更加優化(hua)(hua)、科技含量顯(xian)(xian)著加強，電(dian)力建(jian)設(she)和(he)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)空間依然巨大(da)。盡管“十三(san)五”期間電(dian)力增速(su)由(you)高速(su)轉為中速(su)，但(dan)由(you)于我國電(dian)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)基數(shu)巨大(da)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)均增量裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模仍將(jiang)創歷史新高。平均每年(nian)(nian)(nian)的新增裝(zhuang)機(ji)約1.1億千瓦，相當(dang)(dang)于一(yi)個意大(da)利(li)或巴西，相當(dang)(dang)于我國1988年(nian)(nian)(nian)的總裝(zhuang)機(ji)。大(da)致匡算2015-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)電(dian)源(yuan)項目投(tou)資(zi)(zi)需求約3.2萬億元(yuan)左右，其中化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占約40%，非化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占約60%。
另一(yi)(yi)方面，國(guo)際電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)建(jian)設(she)和(he)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)前(qian)(qian)景也十分(fen)廣闊。廣大(da)的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)興經濟(ji)(ji)體將是未來經濟(ji)(ji)發展主要的(de)(de)(de)“增長極”，我們(men)與(yu)新(xin)興經濟(ji)(ji)體的(de)(de)(de)互動和(he)共同發展將創造(zao)出(chu)(chu)巨(ju)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)空間(jian)(jian)(jian)。“一(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)路”戰略(lve)從(cong)構(gou)想步入實施階段后(hou)，我國(guo)將加快形成全方位開(kai)放的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)格局，為促進(jin)產業轉型升級、紓(shu)解(jie)過剩產能(neng)、充分(fen)利(li)用兩(liang)個市(shi)場和(he)兩(liang)種資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)提供難得的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)遇。“加強能(neng)源(yuan)基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施互聯(lian)互通合(he)作”是“一(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)路”的(de)(de)(de)合(he)作重點之一(yi)(yi)。目前(qian)(qian)，全球有32個新(xin)興經濟(ji)(ji)體的(de)(de)(de)人均(jun)(jun)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)低于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)，若使其(qi)人均(jun)(jun)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)達到(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)水平(ping)，將有約16.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)的(de)(de)(de)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)建(jian)設(she)空間(jian)(jian)(jian)，按照平(ping)均(jun)(jun)單(dan)位造(zao)價約8000元(yuan)/千(qian)瓦(wa)測算，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)需求(qiu)約13萬億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，需求(qiu)最大(da)的(de)(de)(de)印度裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)建(jian)設(she)空間(jian)(jian)(jian)達7.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)需求(qiu)約6萬億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)建(jian)設(she)需要巨(ju)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金、裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)備、技(ji)術和(he)人才投(tou)入，我們(men)可以充分(fen)發揮在電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)備制造(zao)、工程建(jian)設(she)等方面的(de)(de)(de)領先優勢，同時借助亞洲(zhou)基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施投(tou)資(zi)(zi)銀行、絲路基(ji)(ji)(ji)金、金磚國(guo)家開(kai)發銀行等金融平(ping)臺有效解(jie)決電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)項目投(tou)融資(zi)(zi)難題(ti)，為促進(jin)新(xin)興經濟(ji)(ji)體電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎(chu)(chu)設(she)施的(de)(de)(de)持(chi)續、快速發展，打造(zao)合(he)作共贏的(de)(de)(de)“中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)+N命(ming)運(yun)共同體”作出(chu)(chu)積極貢獻。
電力(li)工(gong)業具有資金密(mi)集(ji)、資源密(mi)集(ji)、技術密(mi)集(ji)以及(ji)項(xiang)目建設周(zhou)期長的(de)特(te)點(dian)，為避免電力(li)發(fa)(fa)展的(de)大起大落，電力(li)工(gong)業應適度(du)超(chao)前于國(guo)民(min)經濟和社會發(fa)(fa)展。“十(shi)三五”期間既是(shi)全面建成小康社會的(de)攻堅階段(duan)，也是(shi)電力(li)工(gong)業發(fa)(fa)展的(de)關鍵(jian)時期，電力(li)建設任務依(yi)然繁(fan)重。有必(bi)要(yao)超(chao)前謀(mou)劃、合理安排，把握好發(fa)(fa)展的(de)節奏，更好地滿(man)足國(guo)民(min)經濟和社會發(fa)(fa)展需(xu)要(yao)。
五、結語
新(xin)一輪電(dian)力(li)(li)體制改革大幕(mu)已經拉開，發展的動力(li)(li)和活(huo)力(li)(li)進(jin)一步迸(beng)發，改革紅利(li)不斷釋放，我國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)工業將(jiang)進(jin)入新(xin)的戰(zhan)略機遇期(qi)。我們要把(ba)握發展大勢，做好科學規(gui)劃，抓住投(tou)資機遇，搞好電(dian)力(li)(li)建設，齊(qi)心協力(li)(li)促進(jin)電(dian)力(li)(li)工業科學發展，為全面建成小康社會提供堅強有力(li)(li)的支(zhi)撐(cheng)。
（本文章(zhang)摘自(zi)4月20日《中國(guo)(guo)(guo)能源報》。汪建(jian)平，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)能源建(jian)設集團有限(xian)公司董事長、黨委書記，國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)電力規劃(hua)研(yan)究中心主任(ren)。吳(wu)云，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)能源建(jian)設集團有限(xian)公司總工程師，國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)電力規劃(hua)研(yan)究中心常務副主任(ren)。）